德国汽车零部件供应商舍弗勒10月13日没等正式三季报，先把2026年前三季度初步数据亮了出来。真正扎眼的是那笔特殊费用，电驱动业务计划全年计提约2.4亿欧元，其中2.2亿塞进了第三季度。总部在赫尔佐根奥拉赫的这家公司，把原因说得直白，欧洲整车厂在中国市场的部分电动车项目，产量在往下走，启动时间往后推，有的干脆不做了，当初为这些项目配的产线和设备，一下子多余出来。
On October 13, German auto-parts supplier Schaeffler released its preliminary figures for the first nine months of 2026 ahead of the formal quarterly report. The striking item was a special charge: the E-Mobility division plans to book roughly €240 million for the full year, with €220 million landing in the third quarter. The Herzogenaurach-based company was blunt about the cause—some EV projects of European OEMs in China saw lower volumes, delayed starts, or outright cancellation, leaving the production lines and equipment built for them surplus.
供应商给一款新车做电驱配套，不是接个订单就完事。模具要先开，产线要建，设备要投，工程开发要铺几个月甚至几年，这些钱都按整车厂画的量产蓝图摊销。蓝图写着一年十几万辆，最后只跑了两三万，固定成本摊不薄，设备闲置就是纯损耗。德国车企在中国电动车市场的份额已经掉到一成以下，个别欧洲品牌在华项目的产量同比少了三成，舍弗勒这套产能，是按旧世界搭的。
Supplying e-drive systems for a new model is not a matter of simply taking an order. Molds must be tooled, lines built, equipment installed, engineering spread over months or years—all amortized against the OEM's planned volume. When the blueprint promised 100,000-plus units a year but only 20,000–30,000 actually ran, fixed costs never thin out, and idle equipment is pure loss. German carmakers' share of China's EV market has fallen below 10 percent, and some European brands saw China-project volumes down about 30 percent year on year. Schaeffler's capacity was built for the old world.
这次减值大头砸在资本化的研发支出和绑死在项目上的资产上，公司顺手把热管理系统业务也做了调整，只留模组和零部件那块不动。管理层算的是另一笔账，把包袱一次性甩进资产负债表，未来几年每年能省下几千万欧元的折旧，利润表反而轻了。CEO罗森费德把这动作定义为降风险，不是撤出中国，他说逆风不是暂时的，是得一直面对的趋势，还补了句自己没有水晶球，猜不到欧洲车厂在华份额能不能回来。
The bulk of the impairment hit capitalized R&D spending and assets tied to those projects, and the company also trimmed its thermal-management systems business, keeping only the modules and components part. Management is running a different calculation: by dumping the burden into the balance sheet at once, it saves tens of millions of euros in depreciation each year going forward, lightening the P&L. CEO Klaus Rosenfeld framed the move as risk reduction, not retreat from China. He said the headwind is not temporary but a trend to keep facing, and added he has no crystal ball to guess whether European OEMs' China share can come back.
第三季度电驱动部门收入12.93亿欧元，亏1.69亿，亏损率13.1%，比上一年同期的15%收窄了一点，离赚钱还远。好在传统业务还在吐血回血，动力总成及底盘利润率10.2%，轴承及工业8.6%，汽车后市场14.4%，全球存量车的维修换件是最稳的那块。集团单季收入58.14亿欧元，自由现金流2.6亿欧元，比去年的1.75亿好看，钱袋子没瘪。
In Q3 the E-Mobility division posted revenue of €1.293 billion and a loss of €169 million, a margin of −13.1 percent, narrower than the −15.0 percent a year earlier but still far from profit. The traditional businesses kept bleeding cash back in: powertrain and chassis at 10.2 percent margin, bearings and industrial at 8.6 percent, automotive aftermarket at 14.4 percent—the maintenance and parts replacement of the world's existing car fleet is the steadiest slice. The group's quarterly revenue was €5.814 billion with free cash flow of €260 million, better than the €175 million a year earlier. The wallet did not shrink.
舍弗勒不是第一次干这种清理。去年四季度它就对美洲地区做过类似的资产处置，今年轮到中国的电动车项目，连续第二年动刀。更早的2024年11月，公司抛出了结构重组计划，在欧洲裁员约4700人，其中德国2800个岗位，原定2025到2027慢慢落地，结果执行得比预期快也狠，光在德国的部分退休合同就签了1768份，超出1300的目标。老牌Tier 1的净利润率从燃油车时代的6%到8%一路滑到2025年的2%到4%，佛瑞亚、舍弗勒这几家的平均EBIT利润率，已经被压到这个区间。
Schaeffler is not doing this cleanup for the first time. Last year's fourth quarter it made a similar asset disposal for the Americas; this year the knife fell on China's EV projects, the second year running. Earlier, in November 2024, the company unveiled a restructuring plan with about 4,700 job cuts in Europe, 2,800 of them in Germany, originally to roll out through 2025–2027. It executed faster and harder than expected—1,768 partial-retirement contracts signed in Germany alone, beating the 1,300 target. The net margin of legacy Tier 1 suppliers slid from 6–8 percent in the fuel-car era to 2–4 percent in 2025; the average EBIT margin of names like Forvia and Schaeffler has been squeezed into that band.
填电动车的坑要时间，舍弗勒把另一条增长线摆到了台前，人形机器人。这个做了几十年轴承、精密机械和运动执行机构的老厂，往机器人关节模组延伸，路径是顺的。三季度新增两家中国客户落了量产订单，在手订单堆到4亿欧元，客户数到5家，两家已经在产，三家计划半年内启动。2026年拿下83项新样品订单，从2025年1月算起，物理AI和人形机器人相关专利就申请了119项。
Filling the EV hole takes time, so Schaeffler has pushed another growth line to the front: humanoid robots. For a veteran that has made bearings, precision mechanics, and motion actuators for decades, extending into robot joint modules is a natural path. In Q3 two new Chinese customers placed production orders, lifting the order book to about €400 million across five customers—two already in production, three planned to start within six months. In 2026 it won 83 new sample orders, and since January 2025 it has filed 119 patents around physical AI and humanoids.
罗森费德反复强调这不是要从中国撤，相反，舍弗勒的电动化策略里有一块是抢中国本土整车厂的活，包括它们卖去欧洲的车。减值里没算客户对产量不及预期的补偿，他说公司会去追，但也坦承，欧洲供应商跟中国客户谈这类追偿，难度不小。话讲到这，潜台词很清楚，旧产能的账可以一次写清，新客户的量却得一家家慢慢磨。
Rosenfeld stressed repeatedly this is not a retreat from China. On the contrary, a piece of Schaeffler's electrification strategy is to win work from local Chinese OEMs, including the cars they export to Europe. The impairment does not include any compensation from customers for volumes falling short of plan; he said the company will pursue it, but also admitted that for a European supplier, negotiating this kind of recovery with Chinese customers is no easy matter. The subtext is clear: the old-capacity bill can be written off in one stroke, but new customers' volume has to be earned one account at a time.
10月20日，江苏太仓那座面积约7500平方米的人形机器人数智工厂开门了。工厂把智能装配、机器人训练、数据采集和数字孪生抽进同一个空间，产线由6台人形机器人协同作业，干的活是生产人形机器人自己的关节模组这类核心零部件，闭环到机器人造机器人部件。工厂还敞开给客户和伙伴，在真实工业场景里训练测试物理AI系统。轴承厂转身做机器人，听上去像跨行，其实骨架是同一套精密运动和力控逻辑，差的只是把汽车里的运动执行机构，换到了会走路的钢铁身体里。
On October 20, the roughly 7,500-square-meter humanoid-robot smart factory in Taicang, Jiangsu opened. A line of six humanoid robots works in coordination, producing core parts like joint modules for humanoid robots themselves—a closed loop of robots making robot parts. The factory is also open to customers and partners to train and test physical-AI systems in real industrial settings. A bearing maker turning to robots sounds like a career change, but the skeleton is the same precision-motion and force-control logic.
舍弗勒还在为电驱动的转型亏损买单，2.4亿欧元的减值更像给旧产能办的一场告别。机器人那边订单和热度都在涨，太仓工厂的6台机器人已经下场干活，可这条线能不能真的接住电动车留下的缺口，要看中国客户愿不愿意把量交给一个刚转身的轴承巨头。
Schaeffler is still paying for the E-Mobility transition's losses; the €240 million impairment looks more like a farewell to old capacity. On the robot side, orders and attention are both climbing, and the six robots in Taicang are already on the job—but whether this line can truly catch the gap left by EVs depends on whether Chinese customers are willing to hand volume to a bearing giant that just turned around.
